Momentum and Complacency

After the 3rd debate, when Obama once again beat McCain with both substance AND style, I think many Americans felt a sense of inevitability that Obama would become President.  McCain's Joe the Plumber attack feels analogous to the Battle of the Bulge, his last attempt to stop Obama's momentum.  Initially it gave the Republicans a legitimate issue to talk about, the a recession is not the right time to raise taxes.  In fact, I met some undecided voters who used that argument against me when I came to their doors.

But just as the Battle of the Bulge was only a temporary hiccup before an Allied victory, Joe the Plumber is falling flat.  The Plain Dealer, an influential right-leaning Ohio newspaper, endorsed Obama yesterday and made the point as well and as simple as anyone could; "tax cuts and deregulation alone do not make for an economic strategy."  Obama's tax plan is in essence a rollback of the Bush tax cuts which worked so well to maintain our previously humming economy.  Only an idiot will keep trying the same strategy and expect a different result.  

While McCain keeps pushing the Joe the Plumber line (I heard McCain give a speech this morning where he suggested that there were 3 Presidential candidates at the debate last week; him, Obama, and Joe the Plumber) most people have already made up their minds and they see the writing on the wall.  Most polling sites I've seen agree that Obama has about 264 solid electoral votes, needing to win only one of the contested swing states to take the Presidency.  Our "flake rate" of volunteers promising to come canvass and then not showing has started to  accordingly.

Here we're continually reminded that no lead is safe, and complacency will not lead to the White House.  We're reminded of the New Hampshire primary, when Obama lead significantly in the polls only to lose by about 8 points.  We all know of the Bradley Effect, and how close the polls in Ohio still are. Just this morning an office email went out where we all pledged to not go to blogs, YouTube, facebook, or otherwise get distracted until the election (this will be difficult for me, since this is the only place I can get my computer online).

Obama himself address this issue (I read about it on fivethirtyeight.com) reminding us that he's been campaigning longer any of us, and he's also older that most of us.  With that in mind I'm going to stop blogging and only post when I get home each night.

But first a quick shoutout to my good friends Brian Pastore and Andy Morrisson, who are currently somewhere between Denver and St. Louis on there was to campaign with me in Cleveland.  Three cheers for Brian and Andy!